<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">KEENAN, Trevor</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Maria Serra, JOSEP</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lloret, Francisco</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ninyerola, Miquel</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SABATE, Santiago</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Predicting the future of forests in the Mediterranean under climate change, with niche- and process-based models: CO2 matters!</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Global Change Biology</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6 may 2010</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">april 2010 and accepted</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIOMOD</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">co 2 fertilization</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">CO2 fertilization</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Drought</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">gotilwa 1</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GOTILWA+</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">niche-based models</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pinus halepensis</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pinus sylvestris</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Quercus ilex</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">received 19 january 2010</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">revised version received 27</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Species distribution</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02254.xhttp://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02254.x</style></url></web-urls></urls><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">17</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">565 - 579</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Assessing the potential future of current forest stands is a key to design conservation strategies and understanding potential future impacts to ecosystem service supplies. This is particularly true in the Mediterranean basin, where important future climatic changes are expected. Here, we assess and compare two commonly used modeling approaches (niche- and process-based models) to project the future of current stands of three forest species with contrasting distributions, using regionalized climate for continental Spain. Results highlight variability in model ability to estimate current distributions, and the inherent large uncertainty involved in making projections into the future. CO2 fertilization through projected increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations is shown to increase forest productivity in the mechanistic process-based model (despite increased drought stress) by up to three times that of the non-CO2 fertilization scenario by the period 2050–2080, which is in stark contrast to projections of reduced habitat suitability from the niche-based models by the same period. This highlights the importance of introducing aspects of plant biogeochemistry into current niche-based models for a realistic projection of future species distributions. We conclude that the future of current Mediterranean forest stands is highly uncertain and suggest that a new synergy between niche- and process-based models is urgently needed in order to improve our predictive ability.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1</style></issue><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The following values have no corresponding Zotero field:&lt;br/&gt;publisher: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">López, Bernat C.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gracia, Carlos a</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SABATE, Santiago</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">KEENAN, Trevor</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Assessing the resilience of Mediterranean holm oaks to disturbances using selective thinning</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Acta Oecologica</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">mediterranean forest</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">NIRS</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Quercus ilex</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">resilience</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">resprouting</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">starch</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">thinning</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2009</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2009///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1146609X0900109X</style></url></web-urls></urls><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">35</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">849 - 854</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Climate change will increase the frequency and the intensity of droughts in the Mediterranean region, likely reducing growth and increasing mortality of holm oaks (Quercus ilex), one of the most abundant species of Mediterranean forests. In water-limited systems such as those of the Mediterranean, carbon allocation patterns strongly favour belowground accumulation, especially in large subterranean structures called lignotubers. The resilience of these forests depends largely on the replenishment rate of these carbon reserves after disturbances. An experimental thinning, with two intensities (removal of 40% and 80% of basal area), was performed in 1992 in a holm oak forest at the Prades Experimental Complex of Catchments (NE Spain). In 2002, a second thinning was carried out in subplots within the former experimental 0.5 ha plots. Samples from the lignotubers of holm oak trees were analyzed for starch, and both mobile and immobile chemical components, in order to assess the resilience of holm oaks to repeated disturbances. Our results show that after 10 years, starch stocks in the lignotubers have only recovered to half their former values. Removing 40% of the basal area instead of 80% is suggested to be the better managing option for this kind of forests.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6</style></issue></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">López, Bernat C</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gracia, Carlos a.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SABATE, Santiago</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">KEENAN, Trevor</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Assessing the resilience of Mediterranean holm oaks to disturbances using selective thinning</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Acta Oecologica</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">mediterranean forest</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">NIRS</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Quercus ilex</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">resilience</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">resprouting</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">starch</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">thinning</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2009</style></year></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">35</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">849-854</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Climate change will increase the frequency and the intensity of droughts in the Mediterranean region, likely reducing growth and increasing mortality of holm oaks (Quercus ilex), one of the most abundant species of Mediterranean forests. In water-limited systems such as those of the Mediterranean, carbon allocation patterns strongly favour belowground accumulation, especially in large subterranean structures called lignotubers. The resilience of these forests depends largely on the replenishment rate of these carbon reserves after disturbances. An experimental thinning, with two intensities (removal of 40% and 80% of basal area), was performed in 1992 in a holm oak forest at the Prades Experimental Complex of Catchments (NE Spain). In 2002, a second thinning was carried out in subplots within the former experimental 0.5 ha plots. Samples from the lignotubers of holm oak trees were analyzed for starch, and both mobile and immobile chemical components, in order to assess the resilience of holm oaks to repeated disturbances. Our results show that after 10 years, starch stocks in the lignotubers have only recovered to half their former values. Removing 40% of the basal area instead of 80% is suggested to be the better managing option for this kind of forests.</style></abstract></record></records></xml>