<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">KEENAN, Trevor</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Maria Serra, JOSEP</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lloret, Francisco</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ninyerola, Miquel</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SABATE, Santiago</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Predicting the future of forests in the Mediterranean under climate change, with niche- and process-based models: CO2 matters!</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Global Change Biology</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6 may 2010</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">april 2010 and accepted</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIOMOD</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">co 2 fertilization</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">CO2 fertilization</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Drought</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">gotilwa 1</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GOTILWA+</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">niche-based models</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pinus halepensis</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pinus sylvestris</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Quercus ilex</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">received 19 january 2010</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">revised version received 27</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Species distribution</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02254.xhttp://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02254.x</style></url></web-urls></urls><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">17</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">565 - 579</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Assessing the potential future of current forest stands is a key to design conservation strategies and understanding potential future impacts to ecosystem service supplies. This is particularly true in the Mediterranean basin, where important future climatic changes are expected. Here, we assess and compare two commonly used modeling approaches (niche- and process-based models) to project the future of current stands of three forest species with contrasting distributions, using regionalized climate for continental Spain. Results highlight variability in model ability to estimate current distributions, and the inherent large uncertainty involved in making projections into the future. CO2 fertilization through projected increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations is shown to increase forest productivity in the mechanistic process-based model (despite increased drought stress) by up to three times that of the non-CO2 fertilization scenario by the period 2050–2080, which is in stark contrast to projections of reduced habitat suitability from the niche-based models by the same period. This highlights the importance of introducing aspects of plant biogeochemistry into current niche-based models for a realistic projection of future species distributions. We conclude that the future of current Mediterranean forest stands is highly uncertain and suggest that a new synergy between niche- and process-based models is urgently needed in order to improve our predictive ability.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1</style></issue><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The following values have no corresponding Zotero field:&lt;br/&gt;publisher: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Establishment of co-existing Mediterranean tree species under a varying soil moisture regime</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Journal of Vegetation Science</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2004</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2004///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1654-1103.2004.tb02258.x</style></url></web-urls></urls><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">15</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">237 - 244</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">We investigated the responses of two co-existing Mediterranean trees with different regeneration strategies (Phillyrea latifolia seedlings and Quercus ilex sprouts) to experimental drought below the forest canopy. We considered different recruitment stages and used leaf isotopic discrimination to estimate water use efficiency (WUE) and nitrogen availability and use. Drought decreased the emergence and survival of seedlings and sprouts. Survival and growth of older saplings were not influenced by drought. Seedling emergence of P. latifolia was higher than Q. ilex sprout production, but Q. ilex sprouts had higher survival and growth rates. These differences disappeared in the sapling stage. Carbon isotopic discrimination suggested that Q. ilex sprouts had higher WUE than P. latifolia seedlings. Drought increased WUE of recruits, particularly in Q. ilex. Water use regulation increased with ageing, particularly in P. latifolia. Q. ilex had higher δ15N values than P. latifolia; these were also higher under drier soil conditions. Current year seedlings had higher δ15N than saplings, particularly in P. latifolia, suggesting they exploit superficial soil layers. These results suggest that sprouts obtain benefit from resources stored in parent plants. At earlier stages, they perform better than seedlings. This response is not coupled to adult vulnerability to drought for these species, revealing the difficulty of predicting species dynamics during climate change.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2</style></issue><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The following values have no corresponding Zotero field:&lt;br/&gt;publisher: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</style></notes></record></records></xml>