<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Geographical patterns of congruence and incongruence between correlative species distribution models and a process-based ecophysiological growth model</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2013</style></year></dates><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">WILEY-BLACKWELL</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">40</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1928-1938</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AimOur aim was to map the climate dependence of tree species distributions (probability of occurrence) and forest growth (net primary productivity) by comparing the congruence and incongruence between correlative and process-based modelling approaches. LocationIberian Peninsula, south-western Europe. MethodsWe used forest inventory data for three widespread tree species (Quercus ilex, Pinus halepensis and Pinus sylvestris) to model climatic suitability with an ensemble of seven correlative species distribution models (using biomod). We then simulated forest net primary productivity (NPP) as a surrogate of forest growth for forests of each species using an ecophysiological process-based model (gotilwa+) along a gradient of climatic suitability. The spatial distribution of the growth estimates was then compared with that of the suitability estimates, and robust regression was used to classify regions in terms of model congruence. ResultsQuercus ilex and P.sylvestris both showed a positive relationship between forest NPP and climatic suitability. The main discrepancies were found in the north of the peninsula, where there was high potential forest growth but low climate suitability. Low forest-growth estimates in areas of high suitability only appeared for P.sylvestris in southern montane regions. Pinus halepensis always showed a negative relationship between estimated growth and climatic suitability. The analysis of other ecophysiological parameters (mean leaf life and leaf area index) suggests that this tree species has different physiological strategies that allow differential growth rates in areas of low suitability. Main conclusionsWe found that the relationship between estimated growth and distribution varies strongly in different areas and species. Mapping the incongruences between the predicted climatic suitability and growth allowed us to identify regions where other factors (e.g. biotic interactions) may be more significant than the physiological limits on growth. We show that new insights into species distributions can be gained from mapping the differences between correlative and process-based models.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">KEENAN, Trevor</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Maria Serra, JOSEP</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lloret, Francisco</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ninyerola, Miquel</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SABATE, Santiago</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Predicting the future of forests in the Mediterranean under climate change, with niche- and process-based models: CO2 matters!</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Global Change Biology</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6 may 2010</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">april 2010 and accepted</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIOMOD</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">co 2 fertilization</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">CO2 fertilization</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Drought</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">gotilwa 1</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GOTILWA+</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">niche-based models</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pinus halepensis</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pinus sylvestris</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Quercus ilex</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">received 19 january 2010</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">revised version received 27</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Species distribution</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02254.xhttp://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02254.x</style></url></web-urls></urls><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">17</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">565 - 579</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Assessing the potential future of current forest stands is a key to design conservation strategies and understanding potential future impacts to ecosystem service supplies. This is particularly true in the Mediterranean basin, where important future climatic changes are expected. Here, we assess and compare two commonly used modeling approaches (niche- and process-based models) to project the future of current stands of three forest species with contrasting distributions, using regionalized climate for continental Spain. Results highlight variability in model ability to estimate current distributions, and the inherent large uncertainty involved in making projections into the future. CO2 fertilization through projected increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations is shown to increase forest productivity in the mechanistic process-based model (despite increased drought stress) by up to three times that of the non-CO2 fertilization scenario by the period 2050–2080, which is in stark contrast to projections of reduced habitat suitability from the niche-based models by the same period. This highlights the importance of introducing aspects of plant biogeochemistry into current niche-based models for a realistic projection of future species distributions. We conclude that the future of current Mediterranean forest stands is highly uncertain and suggest that a new synergy between niche- and process-based models is urgently needed in order to improve our predictive ability.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1</style></issue><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The following values have no corresponding Zotero field:&lt;br/&gt;publisher: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</style></notes></record></records></xml>