<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Benito-Garzón, Marta</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ruíz-Benito, PALOMA</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Zavala, Miguel A.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Interspecific differences in tree growth and mortality responses to environmental drivers determine potential species distributional limits in Iberian forests</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Global Ecology and Biogeography</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">climate change</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">demographic rates</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">national forest inventory</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">phenotypic variability</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Spain</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">species distributional models</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">tree growth</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">tree mortality</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2013</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2013///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/geb.12075</style></url></web-urls></urls><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">n/a - n/a</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Aim Tree growth may be enhanced by carbon dioxide fertilization unless drought stress becomes too severe, yet the likely increase in tree growth under a warmer climate is still controversial. Tree mortality has increased in some regions, but its multifactorial nature makes the prediction of likely global trends difficult. The aims of this work are: (1) to assess which abiotic, structural and competition factors influence tree growth and tree mortality in mainland Spain, and (2) to evaluate whether these processes would drive species distributions and would improve current niche model predictions. Location Continental Spain. Methods We projected species distributional models by integrating nonparametric tree growth and tree mortality models based on repeated surveys of diameter at breast height and mortality for 40,721 trees distributed in 45,301 plots, which include the 11 most common canopy tree species in continental Spain, as measured in the second and third National Forest Inventories, with a mean lag time of 11 years. Results Tree growth and tree mortality were explained by an assemblage of many factors, among which climate and competition played a key role. The accuracy of models including tree growth and tree mortality in predicting tree habitat suitability was comparable to classical niche models based on species occurrence. Projections under climate change showed for 9 out of 11 species, a likely increase in tree growth that would be counteracted by an increase in tree mortality, suggesting that even if growth rates increase, mortality would limit the species ranges under global warming expectations. Main conclusions Growth and mortality are major determinants of species distributions. Under future climate change expectations, our model suggests that growth may increase for some Iberian species, but even in this case, species ranges at the rear edge would be limited by an increase in mortality rates.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gaucherel, C.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Guiot, J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Misson, L.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Changes of the potential distribution area of French Mediterranean forests under global warming</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Biogeosciences</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">climate modeling (voyant)</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">CO2</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pinus halepensis</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Quercus ilex</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">tree growth</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://www.biogeosciences.net/5/1493/2008/http://www.biogeosciences.net/5/1493/2008/bg-5-1493-2008.pdf</style></url></web-urls></urls><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">5</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1493 - 1504</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">This work aims at understanding future spatial and temporal distributions of tree species in the Mediterranean region of France under various climates. We focused on two different species (Pinus Halepensis and Quercus Ilex) and compared their growth under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario in order to quantify signiﬁcant changes between present and future. The inﬂuence of environmental factors such as atmospheric CO2 increase and topography on the tree growth has also been quantiﬁed. We modeled species growth with the help of a processbased model (MAIDEN), previously calibrated over measured ecophysiological and dendrochronological series with a Bayesian scheme. The model was fed with the ARPEGE – MeteoFrance climate model, combined with an explicit increase in CO2 atmospheric concentration. The main output of the model gives the carbon allocation in boles and thus tree production. Our results show that the MAIDEN model is correctly able to simulate pine and oak production in space and time, after detailed calibration and validation stages. Yet, these simulations, mainly based on climate, are indicative and not predictive. The comparison of simulated growth at end of 20th and 21st centuries, show a shift of the pine production optimum from about 650 to 950 m due to 2.5 K temperature increase, while no optimum has been found for oak. With the direct effect of CO2 increase taken into account, both species show a signiﬁcant increase in productivity (+26 and +43% for pine and oak respectively) at the end of the 21st century. While both species have different growth mechanisms, they have a good chance to extend their spatial distribution and their elevation in the Alps during the 21st century under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario. This extension is mainly due to the CO2 fertilization effect.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6</style></issue></record></records></xml>