<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GARCÍA-VALDÉS, Raúl</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Zavala, Miguel A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Araújo, Miguel B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Purves, Drew W.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Chasing a moving target: projecting climate change-induced shifts in non-equilibrial tree species distributions</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Journal of Ecology</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Bayesian statistics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Iberian forests</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">local colonization and extinction rates</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">MCMC</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">metapopulation model</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">plant population and community dynamics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">plant–climate interactions</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seed dispersal</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">species distribution models</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">stochastic patch occupancy models</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2013</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2013///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12049</style></url></web-urls></urls><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">n/a - n/a</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">* The geographic distributions of plant species show marked correlations with the current climate, suggesting that they are likely to shift if climate changes. However, before projecting any such shifts, it is important to establish whether distributions are at equilibrium with the current climate. If they are not, distributional shifts could occur even without climate change, making it difficult to tease apart climate-induced shifts from shifts occurring naturally without climate change. * We forecast the geographical distributions of the 10 most common trees occurring in the Iberian Peninsula using a new method that relaxes the species–climate equilibrium assumption implicit in most species distributions models. For each species, we developed a spatially explicit patch occupancy model (SPOM) with climate-dependent extinction rates and with colonization rates that depend on both climate and local seed dispersal. Bayesian methods were used to estimate the colonization, extinction and seed dispersal functions against observed colonization and extinction events recorded in repeat surveys of 46 596 forest plots in the Spanish Forest Inventories (1986–96 and 1997–2007). We then simulated distributional changes between the years 2000–2100. * Without climate change, 9 of the 10 species substantially increased in regional frequency. These increases occurred primarily within current ranges, although some species also expanded across their range edges. With climate change, one temperate conifer species and two sub-Mediterranean species would reduce their frequency of occurrence across the studied region, whereas temperate broad-leaved species were unaffected and Mediterranean species were either unaffected or increased their frequency of occurrence. * Synthesis. The analysis suggests that these species are substantially out of equilibrium, such that abundances and ranges would increase without climate change. Climate change may increase, decrease, stabilize or shift distributions, in a way that can only be understood by comparing predictions against baseline scenarios that account for these non-equilibrium range dynamics.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Serra-Diaz, Josep M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Keenan, Trevor F</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ninyerola, Miquel</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SABATE, Santiago</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gracia, Carlos</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lloret, Francisco</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Geographical patterns of congruence and incongruence between correlative species distribution models and a process-based ecophysiological growth model</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIOMOD</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">climatic suitability</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">correlative models</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ecophysiology</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Forest growth</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GOTILWA+</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">process-based models</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">species distribution models</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2013</style></year></dates><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">WILEY-BLACKWELL</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">40</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1928-1938</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">AimOur aim was to map the climate dependence of tree species distributions (probability of occurrence) and forest growth (net primary productivity) by comparing the congruence and incongruence between correlative and process-based modelling approaches. LocationIberian Peninsula, south-western Europe. MethodsWe used forest inventory data for three widespread tree species (Quercus ilex, Pinus halepensis and Pinus sylvestris) to model climatic suitability with an ensemble of seven correlative species distribution models (using biomod). We then simulated forest net primary productivity (NPP) as a surrogate of forest growth for forests of each species using an ecophysiological process-based model (gotilwa+) along a gradient of climatic suitability. The spatial distribution of the growth estimates was then compared with that of the suitability estimates, and robust regression was used to classify regions in terms of model congruence. ResultsQuercus ilex and P.sylvestris both showed a positive relationship between forest NPP and climatic suitability. The main discrepancies were found in the north of the peninsula, where there was high potential forest growth but low climate suitability. Low forest-growth estimates in areas of high suitability only appeared for P.sylvestris in southern montane regions. Pinus halepensis always showed a negative relationship between estimated growth and climatic suitability. The analysis of other ecophysiological parameters (mean leaf life and leaf area index) suggests that this tree species has different physiological strategies that allow differential growth rates in areas of low suitability. Main conclusionsWe found that the relationship between estimated growth and distribution varies strongly in different areas and species. Mapping the incongruences between the predicted climatic suitability and growth allowed us to identify regions where other factors (e.g. biotic interactions) may be more significant than the physiological limits on growth. We show that new insights into species distributions can be gained from mapping the differences between correlative and process-based models.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Macias-Fauria, Marc</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Willis, Katherine J</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Landscape planning for the future: using fossil records to independently validate bioclimatic envelope models for economically valuable tree species in Europe</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Global Ecology and Biogeography</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Bioclimatic envelope models</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">climate change</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">conservation planning</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">EUROPE</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Little Ice Age</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Medieval Warm Period</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">species distribution models</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">woody species</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2012</style></year></dates><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">n/a--n/a</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Aim Bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs) for seven economically important tree species in Europe were independently validated using a hindcasting approach and fossil pollen records spanning the last 1000 years, including the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the 20th century (PRES). The aim was to determine the accuracy of combining BEMs and palaeoecological data to predict continental-scale changes in distribution, and the availability of fossil data to hindcast economically important species. Location Europe, 11 °W–33 °E, 33–72 °N. Methods Eight types of BEMs were implemented in this study, covering most state-of-the-art modelling techniques. Present and palaeoclimatic data were obtained from the atmosphere–ocean global circulation model ECHO-G. The last millennium was divided into three climatically distinct periods: the MWP (ad 900–1300), the LIA (ad 1600–1850) and PRES (ad 1900–2000). Models were calibrated for each period and validated with climatic and pollen data from the remaining periods. Successfully validated models were projected onto a 1° European grid. Results BEMs were successfully validated with independent data. The average area under the curve statistic showed strong model performance, indicating: (1) the strength of BEMs for modelling current and future distributions and, (2) the potential of fossil pollen records to undertake these approaches. European-scale 1°- gridded maps of probability of occurrence largely agreed with observed 20th-century distributions for most taxa, allowing the construction of past modelled species distributions. Main conclusions Results suggest a high potential for BEMs to be used to model future species distributions, and highlight the importance of palaeoecological data to independently validate these models, taking into account the scales at which these data operate. Although valid, BEMs showed poorer performance with heavily managed species and/or those growing in heterogeneous terrain or with discontinuous distributions. The last millennium in Europe was characterized by an increase in woody crop species and a decline of forest species, suggesting increasing land use by humans.</style></abstract></record></records></xml>