<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gaucherel, C.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Guiot, J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Misson, L.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Changes of the potential distribution area of French Mediterranean forests under global warming</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Biogeosciences</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">climate modeling (voyant)</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">CO2</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pinus halepensis</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Quercus ilex</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">tree growth</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://www.biogeosciences.net/5/1493/2008/http://www.biogeosciences.net/5/1493/2008/bg-5-1493-2008.pdf</style></url></web-urls></urls><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">5</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1493 - 1504</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">This work aims at understanding future spatial and temporal distributions of tree species in the Mediterranean region of France under various climates. We focused on two different species (Pinus Halepensis and Quercus Ilex) and compared their growth under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario in order to quantify signiﬁcant changes between present and future. The inﬂuence of environmental factors such as atmospheric CO2 increase and topography on the tree growth has also been quantiﬁed. We modeled species growth with the help of a processbased model (MAIDEN), previously calibrated over measured ecophysiological and dendrochronological series with a Bayesian scheme. The model was fed with the ARPEGE – MeteoFrance climate model, combined with an explicit increase in CO2 atmospheric concentration. The main output of the model gives the carbon allocation in boles and thus tree production. Our results show that the MAIDEN model is correctly able to simulate pine and oak production in space and time, after detailed calibration and validation stages. Yet, these simulations, mainly based on climate, are indicative and not predictive. The comparison of simulated growth at end of 20th and 21st centuries, show a shift of the pine production optimum from about 650 to 950 m due to 2.5 K temperature increase, while no optimum has been found for oak. With the direct effect of CO2 increase taken into account, both species show a signiﬁcant increase in productivity (+26 and +43% for pine and oak respectively) at the end of the 21st century. While both species have different growth mechanisms, they have a good chance to extend their spatial distribution and their elevation in the Alps during the 21st century under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario. This extension is mainly due to the CO2 fertilization effect.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6</style></issue></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gaucherel, C</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Guiot, J</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Misson, L</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Changes of the potential distribution area of French Mediterranean forests under global warming</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Biogeosciences</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">climate modeling (voyant)</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">CO2</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pinus halepensis</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Quercus ilex</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">tree growth</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">5</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1493-1504</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">This work aims at understanding future spatial and temporal distributions of tree species in the Mediterranean region of France under various climates. We focused on two different species (Pinus Halepensis and Quercus Ilex) and compared their growth under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario in order to quantify signiﬁcant changes between present and future. The inﬂuence of environmental factors such as atmospheric CO2 increase and topography on the tree growth has also been quantiﬁed. We modeled species growth with the help of a processbased model (MAIDEN), previously calibrated over measured ecophysiological and dendrochronological series with a Bayesian scheme. The model was fed with the ARPEGE – MeteoFrance climate model, combined with an explicit increase in CO2 atmospheric concentration. The main output of the model gives the carbon allocation in boles and thus tree production. Our results show that the MAIDEN model is correctly able to simulate pine and oak production in space and time, after detailed calibration and validation stages. Yet, these simulations, mainly based on climate, are indicative and not predictive. The comparison of simulated growth at end of 20th and 21st centuries, show a shift of the pine production optimum from about 650 to 950 m due to 2.5 K temperature increase, while no optimum has been found for oak. With the direct effect of CO2 increase taken into account, both species show a signiﬁcant increase in productivity (+26 and +43% for pine and oak respectively) at the end of the 21st century. While both species have different growth mechanisms, they have a good chance to extend their spatial distribution and their elevation in the Alps during the 21st century under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario. This extension is mainly due to the CO2 fertilization effect.</style></abstract></record></records></xml>