<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Hanewinkel, Marc</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Cullmann, Dominik A</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Michiels, Hans-Gerd</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Kändler, Gerald</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Converting probabilistic tree species range shift projections into meaningful classes for management.</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Journal of environmental management</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Accuracy-based probability threshold</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Bioclimatic envelope</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">climate change</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Range shift model</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tree species distribution</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tree species suitability</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2014</style></year></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">134C</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">153-165</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The paper deals with the management problem how to decide on tree species suitability under changing environmental conditions. It presents an algorithm that classifies the output of a range shift model for major tree species in Europe into multiple classes that can be linked to qualities characterizing the ecological niche of the species. The classes: i) Core distribution area, ii) Extended distribution area, iii) Occasional occurrence area, and iv) No occurrence area are first theoretically developed and then statistically described. The classes are interpreted from an ecological point of view using criteria like population structure, competitive strength, site spectrum and vulnerability to biotic hazards. The functioning of the algorithm is demonstrated using the example of a generalized linear model that was fitted to a pan-European dataset of presence/absence of major tree species with downscaled climate data from a General Circulation Model (GCM). Applications of the algorithm to tree species suitability classification on a European and regional level are shown. The thresholds that are used by the algorithm are precision-based and include Cohen's Kappa. A validation of the algorithm using an independent dataset of the German National Forest Inventory shows good accordance of the statistically derived classes with ecological traits for Norway spruce, while the differentiation especially between core and extended distribution for European beech that is in the centre of its natural range in this area is less accurate. We hypothesize that for species in the core of their range regional factors like forest history superimpose climatic factors. Problems of uncertainty issued from potentially applying a multitude of modelling approaches and/or climate realizations within the range shift model are discussed and a way to deal with the uncertainty by revealing the underlying attitude towards risk of the decision maker is proposed.</style></abstract><accession-num><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">24486469</style></accession-num></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lenoir, Jonathan</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gégout, Jean-Claude</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pierrat, Jean-Claude</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Bontemps, Jean-Daniel</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Dhôte, Jean-François</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Differences between tree species seedling and adult altitudinal distribution in mountain forests during the recent warm period (1986–2006)</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ecography</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Altitudinal distribution</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">climate change</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seedlings (PG)</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tree species distribution</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2009</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2009///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2009.05791.x</style></url></web-urls></urls><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">32</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">765 - 777</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Spatial fingerprints of climate change on tree species distribution are usually detected at latitudinal or altitudinal extremes (arctic or alpine tree line), where temperatures play a key role in tree species distribution. However, early detection of recent climate change effects on tree species distribution across the overall temperature gradient remains poorly explored. Within French mountain forests, we investigated altitudinal distribution differences between seedling (≤50 cm tall and &gt;1 yr old) and adult (&gt;8 m tall) life stages for 17 European tree taxa, encompassing the entire forest elevation range from lowlands to the subalpine vegetation belt (50–2250 m a.s.l.) and spanning the latitudinal gradient from northern temperate to southern Mediterranean forests. We simultaneously identified seedlings and adults within the same vegetation plots. These twin observations gave us the equivalent of exactly paired plots in space with seedlings reflecting a response to the studied warm period (1986–2006) and adults reflecting a response to a former and cooler period. For 13 out of 17 species, records of the mean altitude of presence at the seedling life stage are higher than that at the adult life stage. The low altitudinal distribution limit of occurrences at the seedling life stage is, on average, 29 m higher than that at the adult life stage which is significant. The high altitudinal distribution limit also shows a similar trend but which is not significant. Complementary analyses using modelling techniques and focusing on the optimum elevation (i.e. the central position inside distribution ranges) have confirmed differences between life stages altitudinal distribution. Seedlings optima are mostly higher than adults optimum, reaching, on average, a 69 m gap. This overall trend showing higher altitudinal distribution at the seedling life stage in comparison to the adult one suggests a main driver of change highly related to elevation, such as climate warming that occurs during the studied period. Other drivers of change that could play an important role across elevation or act at more specific scales are also discussed as potential contributors to explain our results.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">5</style></issue><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The following values have no corresponding Zotero field:&lt;br/&gt;publisher: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</style></notes></record></records></xml>