<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Cheaib, Alissar</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Badeau, Vincent</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Boe, Julien</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Chuine, Isabelle</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Delire, Christine</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Dufrêne, Eric</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">François, Christophe</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GRITTI, EMMANUEL S</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Legay, Myriam</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pagé, Christian</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Thuiller, Wilfried</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Viovy, Nicolas</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Leadley, Paul</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Climate change impacts on tree ranges: model intercomparison facilitates understanding and quantification of uncertainty</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ecology Letters</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">climate change</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fagus sylvatica</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">France</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pinus sylvestris</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Quercus ilex</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Quercus petraea</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Quercus robur</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">species range</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">vegetation model intercomparison</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2012</style></year></dates><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Blackwell Publishing Ltd</style></publisher><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">15</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">533-544</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ecology Letters (2012) Abstract Model-based projections of shifts in tree species range due to climate change are becoming an important decision support tool for forest management. However, poorly evaluated sources of uncertainty require more scrutiny before relying heavily on models for decision-making. We evaluated uncertainty arising from differences in model formulations of tree response to climate change based on a rigorous intercomparison of projections of tree distributions in France. We compared eight models ranging from niche-based to process-based models. On average, models project large range contractions of temperate tree species in lowlands due to climate change. There was substantial disagreement between models for temperate broadleaf deciduous tree species, but differences in the capacity of models to account for rising CO2 impacts explained much of the disagreement. There was good quantitative agreement among models concerning the range contractions for Scots pine. For the dominant Mediterranean tree species, Holm oak, all models foresee substantial range expansion.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">RAMIL-REGO, P</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">RODRÍGUEZ-GUITIÁN, M</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">MUÑOZ-SOBRINO, C</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sclerophyllous vegetation dynamics in the north of the Iberian peninsula during the last 16,000 years</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Global Ecology and Biogeography</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holocene</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">iberian peninsula</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Late-glacial</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">palynology</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Quercus ilex</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">sclerophyllous forests</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">species range</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">vegetation history</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1998</style></year></dates><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Blackwell Science Ltd</style></publisher><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">7</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">335-351</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">We used pollen analysis to evaluate the dynamics of sclerophyllous arboreal taxa during the last 16,000 years. Quercus ilex type pollen and, to a lesser degree, other sclerophyllous elements (e.g. Olea and Phillyrea) have been documented during the Late-glacial in the majority of the sequences obtained in continental territories in the north of the Iberian peninsula, as well as in the eastern coastal/sub-coastal area in the Cantabric region. During the Late-glacial and the Holocene, sclerophyllous elements became widespread in many areas of the north Iberian peninsula (the Sil, Duero and Ebro depressions and the southernmost slopes of adjacent mountains), with the smallest pollinic representation of these taxa being for the most septentrional areas (coastal/sub-coastal territories and the northermost slopes of the Cantabrian-Atlantic Mountains). During these periods, there is no indication of the presence of Quercus ilex pollen in the northwestern territories, which would explain the absence of this species in the present-day landscape. Despite the widespread distribution that sclerophyllous elements have maintained during the last 16,000 years, they have never attained a predominant role in the landscape, having a smaller representation, both during hotter and colder phases, than deciduous forests, pine forests and mixed forests.</style></abstract></record></records></xml>